With Donald J. Trump having secured a return to the White House, it is essential to cast a spotlight on Richard Grenell — a figure who has held significant influence in Trump’s foreign policy circle and whose track record raises serious questions surrounding the security of the Western alliance and global democracy.
For Albanians and those concerned with the stability and statehood of Kosova, Grenell’s stances on the region generates insecurity on what a second Trump administration will look like, with Grenell promising that the Balkans will be a priority if Trump were to win while campaigning in Wisconsin.
As former U.S. Ambassador to Germany and Special Envoy for the Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations, Grenell’s record shows a repeated disregard for established diplomatic channels and, often, a view of diplomacy as transactional. This has demonstrably undermined the United States’ leading role in fostering regional stability.
One of the most concerning examples of Grenell’s interference in Kosova was his role in the collapse of the newly elected government led by Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who based his rise on an anti-corruption and democratic reform platform. In March of 2020, Grenell spearheaded the Trump administration’s pressure on Kosova to lift the 100 percent tariff on Serbian goods, by suspending development assistance and threatening to withdraw U.S. troops from the NATO peacekeeping force. This mounting pressure led to the removal of the democratically-elected Prime Minister Kurti and his replacement by the Democratic League of Kosova (LDK), a party more willing to go along with the Grenell plan. Kurti’s ousting raised alarms across the Western Balkans and underscored the Trump’s administration shift from the traditional American route of supporting democratic principles to favoring short-term political ends. For many Kosovars, this was a troubling turn, calling into question Grenell’s allegiance to stability and democracy in the region.
The cornerstone of Trump’s Western Balkan policy was the Kosovo-Serbia Economic Normalization Agreements signed on September 4th, 2020. Trump hailed the agreement as “a truly historic commitment,” adding that the countries were working toward this for “many, many years.” In reality, the deal prioritized empty economic gestures over meaningful political resolution. The move seen by some as a desperate attempt by Trump to secure a foreign policy “win” with a presidential election looming two months away, adding at a rally: “We are stopping mass killings between Kosovo and Serbia. They have been killing each other for so many years. They are going to stop killing.”
Critics of Grenell’s approach argue that his focus has been on rapid and superficial agreements rather than substantive solutions that would lead to any reconciliation between the two countries. Prime Minister Kurti remarked following the deal: “'He cares about time, and he needs it fast. He is focused on the signatures at the bottom of the agreement, not on the text of the agreement. And if you want to do it fast, you pressure the weaker side. And Serbia is stronger, bigger. He doesn’t care about history. And in the Balkans, if you neglect history, it will backfire. It always comes back.”
Grenell’s close relationship with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has fueled fears among the Western alliance. Vučić, a leader largely viewed as authoritarian, maintains longstanding ties to Russian interests, has reportedly received Grenell’s support in ways that compromise Kosova’s security and autonomy. In the lead up to the 2024 elections, Grenell stated: “Your future is with us, not with Russia or China; your future is with America.'" Just what requirements, if any, will be applied to the Serbian government – whose Russian-aligned Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin was recently designated a corrupt official by the United States – remains unclear.
The implications of Grenell’s alignment with Serbian interests reach far beyond the borders of the Western Balkans. As Russia continues its aggression in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence over Serbia grows increasingly troubling. Grenell is inadvertently risking Russian empowerment in the Balkans, ultimately weakening Western unity at a time when democracies worldwide are in need of solidarity. For Albanians and advocates of Kosova's sovereignty, the fear is that Grenell’s influence will enable Serbia, backed by Russia, to destabilize the region away from its European path.
Another element of concern has been Grenell’s business deals in the Balkans since the end of the first Trump administration. Most notably, he aided Trump’s son-in-law and former senior White House adviser Jared Kushner pursue major investments in a luxury resort on the Albanian island of Sazan as well as a residential and office complex in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade.
It is unquestionable that Grenell used relationships with business executives and regional elected officials – who wield significant influence over foreign investments and seek to cultivate strong relations with Trump’s inner circle – that were built while in government. What remains unclear is whether this will influence decision-making on the region this upcoming term.
Contrary to what some observers expected, President-elect Trump will not be nominating Grenell as his Secretary of State. He opted instead for Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who is seen as far less abrasive and enjoys stronger support among establishment Republicans. While this might seem to ensure a sense of stability, it does not mean that Grenell will not be able to exercise outsized influence on the Balkans specifically. It is worth remembering that he helped shape policy in the last administration as Ambassador and Envoy, before briefly rising to the more senior position of Acting Director of National Intelligence in early 2020.
As Europe prepares itself for the shifts of a second Trump administration, the stakes have never been higher for the broader pro-democracy movement in the Balkans.
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